Update NPi2025 technology capacity targets by lea-hayez · Pull Request #2271 · remindmodel/remind

lea-hayez · 2026-01-21T12:30:34Z

Purpose of this PR

Update of technological capacity targets in the NPI2025 scenario, based on the scenario protocol from ELEVATE (update from October 2025). See selected policies here: /p/projects/rd3mod/inputdata/sources/NewClimate/NPi_PBL_2025.xlsx The coal bounds still need to be correctly read in remind, or correctly ignored in mrremind (see below). So no coal bound in REMIND added yet.

See full NPi comparison here: /p/tmp/leaha/remind/compScen-NewClimate-77-noCoalp-2026-02-05_14.09.20-H12.pdf
- SSP2−NPi2025−develop−77 : current develop with new input data 7.77
- SSP2−NPi2025−develop−76 : current develop previous input data 7.76
- SSP2−NPi2025−NewClimate−77−noCoalp : new input data 7.77 and remind adjustment
-> excludes coal bound, it needs a fix in mrremind to ignore all countries but EUR and CAZ. Currently, it would read all historical and target data as lower bound, which does not allow coal development in regions such as CAZ or CHA.)

Overview of changes:

Minor changes in total CO2 emissions:

Slight increase in biomass use:

New nuclear in OAS and NEU:

Drop of EU offshore wind target of 300GW by 2050 (FF55):

Delayed hydro target in Turkey (from 32GW in 2023 to 35GW in 2035):

Related changes in input data generation: pik-piam/mrremind#774

Type of change

Indicate the items relevant for your PR by replacing ◻️ with ☑️.
Do not delete any lines. This makes it easier to understand which areas are affected by your changes and which are not.

Parts concerned

☑️ GAMS Code
◻️ R-scripts
◻️ Documentation (GAMS incode documentation, comments, tutorials)
☑️ Input data / CES parameters
◻️ Tests, CI/CD (continuous integration/deployment)
◻️ Configuration (switches in main.gms, default.cfg, and scenario_config*.csv files)
◻️ Other (please give a description)

Impact

◻️ Bug fix
◻️ Refactoring
◻️ New feature
☑️ Change of parameter values or input data (including CES parameters)
☑️ Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)
◻️ Fundamental change of results of default scenarios

Checklist

Do not delete any line. Leave unfinished elements unchecked so others know how far along you are.
In the end all checkboxes must be ticked before you can merge.

I executed the automated model tests (make test) after my final commit and all tests pass (FAIL 0)
I adjusted the reporting in remind2 if and where it was needed
I adjusted the madrat packages (mrremind and other packages involved) for input data generation if and where it was needed
My code follows the coding etiquette
I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
I updated the CHANGELOG.md correctly (added, changed, fixed, removed, input data/calibration)

Further information (optional)

Runs with these changes are here: /p/tmp/leaha/remind/SSP2-NPi2025-NewClimate-77-noCoalp.RData
Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?): /p/tmp/leaha/remind/compScen-NewClimate-77-noCoalp-2026-02-05_14.09.20-H12.pdf

…updateNPICap-Oct

relax geothermal bound to all regions

This reverts commit 89b7d6d.

…updateNPICap-Oct

fschreyer

Thanks for your work!

Overall, the results look good to me. Some code modifications I'd still recommend.

Also, before merging this it would be good to first generate new input data and increment the input data revision cfg$inputRevision in the config/default.cfg file in the present PR to include this data. Otherwise, this REMIND version would run with input data generated with older mrremind versions before your update of capacity targets.

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/bounds.gms

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/equations.gms

…updateNPICap-Oct

This reverts commit 9c50beb.

…updateNPICap-Oct

RahelMA

Thanks for the great work! Do I see this correctly: Due to the coal implementation being postponed, this PR mainly has the purpose of setting the new input data cfg$inputRevision <- "7.77"?

If so, I only see one missing *!

RahelMA · 2026-02-04T13:15:23Z

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/declarations.gms

    p40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,all_te)          "NPI capacity targets for solar (pv, csp), wind (total, onshore, offshore), nuclear, hydro, biomass, nuclear (GW)"
    p40_ElecBioBound(ttot,all_regi)              "level for lower bound on biomass tech. absolute capacities, in GW"
-    p40_CoalBound(ttot,iso_regi)                 "level for upper bound on absolute capacities, in GW for all technologies except electromobility"
+    p40_CoalCapBound(ttot,iso_regi)               "level for upper bound on absolute capacities, in GW for all technologies except electromobility"


I think you would also want to add * for not having a parameter that is not used!

As I mentioned earlier, I don't see a point in having any commented code (I am quite sure that this is also RSE policy). Code that has been added and is not used anymore can be deleted as it can always be restored via your git history.

RahelMA · 2026-02-04T13:16:31Z

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/bounds.gms

 vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"windoff","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"windoff")*0.001;
 vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"wind","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"wind")*0.001;
-*vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"elh2","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"elh2")*0.001;   
-*vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"geohdr","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"geohdr")*0.001;  quick fix needs adjustments in the mrremind Inputdata generation including new IRENA


this can now be dropped as you have it in the input data?

RahelMA · 2026-02-04T13:17:02Z

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/bounds.gms

-*vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"elh2","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"elh2")*0.001;   
-*vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"geohdr","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"geohdr")*0.001;  quick fix needs adjustments in the mrremind Inputdata generation including new IRENA
 vm_cap.lo(t,regi,"geohdr","1")$( (t.val gt 2025) AND sameas(regi, "OAS")) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"geohdr")*0.001;
-*vm_cap.up(t,regi,"coalchp","1")$(t.val gt 2025) = p40_TechBound(t,regi,"coalchp")*0.001;  !!max bound for Canada use the netzero calculator, check coal phase out module


this was never active right?

lea-hayez · 2026-02-05T18:49:04Z

@LaviniaBaumstark this PR includes the change of input data from 7.76 to 7.77, ready to merge whether!

LaviniaBaumstark · 2026-02-10T10:57:54Z

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/declarations.gms

    p40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,all_te)          "NPI capacity targets for solar (pv, csp), wind (total, onshore, offshore), nuclear, hydro, biomass, nuclear (GW)"
    p40_ElecBioBound(ttot,all_regi)              "level for lower bound on biomass tech. absolute capacities, in GW"
-    p40_CoalBound(ttot,iso_regi)                 "level for upper bound on absolute capacities, in GW for all technologies except electromobility"
+*    p40_CoalCapBound(ttot,iso_regi)               "level for upper bound on absolute capacities, in GW for all technologies except electromobility"


please delete not active parameters

LaviniaBaumstark · 2026-02-10T10:58:50Z

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/equations.gms

+*** coal bound: all technologies transforming PE coal into SE electricity. Cannot apply to current input data, as lower bound on historical data affect strongly dynamics in OAS and CHA.
+*q40_coalCapBound(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2025 
+*  AND p40_TechBound(t,regi,"coalchp") gt 0)..
+*  sum(pe2se("pecoal","seel",te), 


please do not add a non active equation, we no not want to have code which is out-commented

lea-hayez added 5 commits January 13, 2026 11:47

add new input data

4ff329c

add coal bound

303f40f

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

a3db2af

…updateNPICap-Oct

limit coal bound to EUR and CAZ

89b7d6d

relax geothermal bound to all regions

Revert "limit coal bound to EUR and CAZ"

d4ed2bf

This reverts commit 89b7d6d.

lea-hayez mentioned this pull request Jan 21, 2026

Update NPi capacities (PBL protocol October 2025) pik-piam/mrremind#774

Merged

lea-hayez added 4 commits January 22, 2026 10:26

limit coal bound to CAZ and EUR regions

0211058

new input data, dropped 2050 hydro target in IDN

7e2de24

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

36bba5e

…updateNPICap-Oct

adjust input data file path

cddef1c

lea-hayez requested review from RahelMA and fschreyer January 23, 2026 09:17

fschreyer requested changes Jan 23, 2026

View reviewed changes

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/bounds.gms Outdated Show resolved Hide resolved

modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/equations.gms Outdated Show resolved Hide resolved

lea-hayez added 11 commits January 23, 2026 11:33

adjust PR based on Felix comments

e371ac0

adjust documentation

5ca590f

use new input data which contain updated NewClimate source file

54de4aa

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

ccafc0d

…updateNPICap-Oct

adjust for code check

9addc01

adjust for code check

9c50beb

Revert "adjust for code check"

c97facb

This reverts commit 9c50beb.

adjust for code check

285fa29

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

4d04d8a

…updateNPICap-Oct

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

57240c4

…updateNPICap-Oct

ignore coal bound

bbe7e67

lea-hayez marked this pull request as ready for review February 4, 2026 12:43

RahelMA approved these changes Feb 4, 2026

View reviewed changes

lea-hayez requested a review from fschreyer February 4, 2026 13:30

comment out unused parameter

77c4d92

LaviniaBaumstark reviewed Feb 10, 2026

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Update NPi2025 technology capacity targets#2271

Update NPi2025 technology capacity targets#2271
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