NFL Data Stack

A modern, single-node analytics stack for NFL game predictions using ELO ratings, Monte Carlo simulations, and statistical validation.

Overview

This project implements a complete analytics pipeline for NFL game predictions, combining:

• ELO Rating System with margin-of-victory adjustments
• Monte Carlo Simulations (10,000 iterations) for probability estimation
• Statistical Validation including calibration analysis and confidence intervals
• Modern Data Stack using DuckDB, dbt, Parquet, and Rill
• Interactive Webpage with Tufte-inspired design for exploring predictions

Quick Start

View the predictions webpage:

# Start the web server
just web

# Or manually:
python3 serve.py

Then open http://localhost:8080 in your browser.

Update predictions for a new week:

# Update for Week 11
just update-web week=11

# Or manually:
python update_webpage.py --week 11

License

MIT License - See LICENSE file for details

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